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By Jonathan Alter
Source: Newsweek Web Exclusive
Forget tonight. She could win 16 straight and still lose.
Hillary Clinton may be poised for a big night tonight, with wins in Ohio, Texas and Rhode Island. Clinton aides say this will be the beginning of her comeback against Barack Obama. There’s only one problem with this analysis: they can’t count.
I’m no good at math either, but with the help of Slate’s Delegate Calculator I’ve scoped out the rest of the primaries, and even if you assume huge Hillary wins from here on out, the numbers don’t look good for Clinton. In order to show how deep a hole she’s in, I’ve given her the benefit of the doubt every week for the rest of the primaries.
So here we go: Let’s assume Hillary beats expectations and wins Ohio tonight 55-45, Rhode Island 55-45, Texas, 53-47 and (this is highly improbable), ties in Vermont, 50-50.
Then it’s on to Wyoming on Saturday, where, let’s say, the momentum of today helps her win 53-47. Next Tuesday in Mississippi—where African-Americans play a big role in the Democratic primary—she shocks the political world by winning 52-48.
Then on April 22, the big one, Pennsylvania—and it’s a Hillary blowout, 60-40, with Clinton picking up a whopping 32 delegates. She wins both of Guam’s two delegates on May 30, and Indiana’s proximity to Illinois does Obama no good on May 6, with the Hoosiers going for Hillary 55-45. The same day brings another huge upset in a heavily African-American state: enough North Carolina blacks desert Obama to give the state to Hillary 52-48, netting her five more delegates.
Suppose May 13 in West Virginia is no kinder to Obama, and he loses by double digits, netting Clinton two delegates. The identical 55-45 result on May 20 in Kentucky nets her five more. The same day brings Oregon, a classic Obama state. Oops! He loses there 52-48. Hillary wins by 10 in Montana and South Dakota on June 3, and primary season ends on June 7 in Puerto Rico with another big Viva Clinton! Hillary pulls off a 60-40 landslide, giving her another 11 delegates. She has enjoyed a string of 16 victories in a row over three months.
So at the end of regulation, Hillary’s the nominee, right? Actually, this much-too-generous scenario (which doesn’t even account for Texas’s weird “pri-caucus” system, which favors Obama in delegate selection) still leaves the pledged-delegate score at 1,634 for Obama to 1,576 for Clinton. That’s a 58-delegate lead.
Let’s say the Democratic National Committee schedules do-overs in Florida and (heavily African-American) Michigan. Hillary wins big yet again. But the chances of her netting 56 delegates out of those two states would require two more huge margins. (Unfortunately the Slate calculator isn’t helping me here.)
So no matter how you cut it, Obama will almost certainly end the primaries with a pledged-delegate lead, courtesy of all those landslides in February. Hillary would then have to convince the uncommitted superdelegates to reverse the will of the people. Even coming off a big Hillary winning streak, few if any superdelegates will be inclined to do so. For politicians to upend what the voters have decided might be a tad, well, suicidal.
For all of those who have been trashing me for saying this thing is over, please feel free to do your own math. Give Hillary 75 percent in Kentucky and Indiana. Give her a blowout in Oregon. You will still have a hard time getting her through the process with a pledged-delegate lead.
The Clintonites can spin to their heart’s content about how Obama can’t carry any large states besides Illinois. How he can’t close the deal. How they’ve got the Big Mo now.
Tell it to Slate’s Delegate Calculator.








On Obama and Black Boys
October 31, 2008 in Barack Obama, Bill Clinton, Commentary, Did You Know?, Issues, Michelle Obama, Politics, Polls, The Campaign Trail | Tags: Barack Obama, Election '08, Politics, Polls | by bfwo | 2 comments
As of this writing, the current national Gallup poll has Senator Obama leading by a respectable percentage; several previously red states are either leaning or solidly in the Obama column, and Senator McCain is fighting tooth and nail to hold on to other Republican strong holds, including his own home state of Arizona. Though most of us are afraid to say so, it appears that we are in fact about to see our collective dreams come true – one that many of us thought could not happen, and definitely not in our lifetimes. We are mere days away from what could be one of the most historic and defining moments in this nation’s history, and as a black woman, it’s been hard for me to know where to begin when it comes to expressing my thoughts about what’s coming. The fact is, the photo that accompanies this article says it better than I ever could, but here goes.
There are so many black women out there who, like me, are raising young black men. Due to a recent marriage, I’m now raising three. And it is as much a sign of how much this nation has changed that in some ways, my three sons are oblivious to the importance of the coming event, as it is an indictment on our society that as women raising black men, we’ve longed for someone, anyone to ease our fears about our sons’ futures and to be the role models that our young boys have so desperately needed for so long. Not that we haven’t had strong models for them at all, but we’ve been hard pressed to find them outside the fields of sports, music, or other areas of the entertainment industry.
I was left alone to raise the only child I’ve ever given birth to when I was just four months pregnant. The pain and fear I felt at the time soon gave way to resentment, and then to a hatred so pronounced that it threatened to swallow me whole. I had tried my best to play by the rules, only becoming pregnant after six years of marriage during which I had begun to think that I was incapable of having a child.
The news of my pregnancy was at once joyous and terrifying, as it became increasingly apparent that I would be forced to raise my son alone. Back then, I could not comprehend how it was that the father of my only child could not understand how much his son needed him, how much I needed him, and the pain of the rejection of me an my son was unbearable at times. It was everything I could do after the birth of my sweet David to will myself on a daily basis to be grateful for the part-time status of his father, and the modest child support he paid faithfully each month. But it was what I had to do, for my son’s sake, and also because a guiding hand, a role-model, a mentor, my son’s father could and would never be.
What was even harder is that it wasn’t long before I realized that I had to find some way to learn to forgive my ex-husband; I eventually realized that he himself was and is a product of a shattered home, and ill-equipped to play the role of father and husband. Raised without his birth father, and ultimately without his birth mother, he had no real guiding hand, no role model of his own to speak of. His was an existence of sustenance only; as a result, he had no foundation given to him in what it meant to be a father and a husband, to raise a black boy in this society, to set and achieve goals, or anything like that. The condition of his life has been one of playing what he’s been dealt, and the result is that though he loves our son as much as he knows how to, he has nothing meaningful in the way of a winning hand to deal my son.
My story is not unique. From the young woman who may have gotten caught after a cataclysmic lapse in judgment, to those who like me, watched their husbands walk out on them after years of marriage, literally leaving them holding a blue diaper bag, many black women have had to come to terms with the idea that we have been left alone to raise little men. As a population, we have allowed ourselves to fall into a cycle of family disintegration that has become all too common place. These days, it’s the African-American kids who live in in-tact two parent homes who are the weird ones. In our communities, having a father who is in the home, productive and engaged has become a novelty. A tragic, gut-wrenching novelty.
But for the most part as black women, we’ve persevered. Doing all that we can to expose our sons to the right influences, to talk tough to them when we need to in their fathers’ absence, and to do and say whatever we can to try to mold them into the men they need to be. Sometimes without the benefit of having had a male role model to emulate ourselves, and all the while praying that OUR sons will prove the ugly statistics that we can’t escape or get out of our heads wrong.
The reality is, the problem is generational, and has its roots in slavery and the systemic destruction of the African family unit as it was when slaves were brought to this country. Many stories of the time tell of how upon arriving on these shores, men were immediately separated from their children and wives, in order to begin the process of degradation and humiliation that would ensure that their spirits would be broken, and that they would willingly comply with their masters’ wishes. It began way back then, and persists to this day because of our inability to re-discover our strong family ties, through the lingering effects of Jim Crow, the confusion of first segragation and then forced desegregation, and the plain old racism and failed attempts at evening the playing field (like welfare, and in some respects affirmative action).
So it was, that we the black mothers of America found ourselves; over the years, frightened beyond all measure that our young men would be sacrificed to the ravages of an unfair justice system, or worse to the violence of the mean streets; or engulfed in the culture of fake opulence and self-degradation that is some rap music, and some aspects of the Hip-Hop culture; or lost and forgotten in an educational system that is tilted towards their white counteparts, and none too anxious to fix itself in order to help to turn the tide of drop-outs and illiterate graduates it produces in startling higher proportions in the minority community. And most of all we were certainly convinced that though blacks in this country have made many strides, there were still some very obvious limits, when on the national stage walked Barack Obama.
Now please don’t zone out on me. I know that Senator Obama is not the second coming, or even the answer to all our problems, but what he is is a shining beacon of hope, and proof of what we’ve all known all along – that black men can be real fathers, good husbands, and strong and thoughful leaders, hard stop. That we are a nation of little budding Obama’s waiting to happen. That with the proper care and feeding, our boys are capable of achieving the unthinkable. The beauty of Senator Obama is that he not only displays these qualities as a legislator and candidate, he displays them even more as a father to his gorgeous daughters and husband to his wife.
And so just like in the photo, Senator Obama, along with every other weight he carries on his shoulders, literally is caring the hopes of the black boys who will soon be men in this country, who generation after generation, have been able to hide their brilliance and potential behind the mantle of hopelesness that said that they could only go so far, or achieve so much. And he and his family stand as the most shining example of a strong family, black, white, or purple that we’ve seen on the national forefront in a long time. It is an astounding feeling, as the final days of the campaign fade away, to look forward to the days after November 4th, when we can all breathe an endless sigh of relief and spend our days reminisicing about the fight. And it will not be lost on any of us what this historic event can and will mean to the young black boys of this country, who after that date, will be able to say with confidence and without hesitation, “one day, I will be President of the United States”.
Look at the picture again. I get great joy in the wide-eyed wonder on my sons’ faces when I tell them that once black kids and white kids couldn’t play together – not totally unlike the giggle I get out of watching them collapse into a fit of laughter when I tell them that when I was their age, we only had four channels to watch on television. One day, my sons, and the boy in this picture will be able to astound their grandchildren with wild tales of a time in our nation’s history when the idea of a black man running for President was laughable – unheard of. And hopefully, they will smile, and take great joy in their chuckles, and marvel at the innocence that comes from being the beneficiaries of the brave and remarkable accomplishments of those who came before us.